Peracute political crisis making Ukraine face the possibility of strongarm confrontation is not the best background to analyze situation objectively. When you are full of emotions, it is hard to give a backward glance and ask questions about the causes of revolution in Ukraine and following effect of it.
New Round of Revolution in Ukraine. What is the reason of this revolution in Ukraine?
Most EPIC moments: Ukraine protests (video)
New video shows that Revolution in Ukraine is not meant to slow down.
22.01.2014 rebels still use Molotov cocktail, clubs and fire tyres in order to create smoke. Berkut is inclined to keep positions too. Police uses clubs and water-cannons. All Ukraine hopes that this horror will end up arriving at the consensus between fighting parties after all.
22.01.2014 it have become clear that ~FOUR persons have died due to wounds made by Berkut. On the photo below is dead man. People sacrifece their lives for freedom. Some sources state that sniper is killing the most active members among rebels.
Some people state that tanks have been delivered to Kiev. This information can be delusive.
22.01.2014 clashes occured again and warfare was near "Dynamo Kiev" stadium, but the cordon of militia was not broken as well as Berkut did not move closer to EuroMaydan. Thus the situation is stable, but critical. Rebels make smoke by firing tyres.
Some people are stating that clashes will cause demolishing of cultural centre of Kiev. Hope those suggestions will not be put into practice.
The whole Revolution in Ukraine can be shown by one picture.
In the evening 21.01.2014 there was a small tension, however withot any actions.
On 21.01.2014 both sides were likely to conclude a truce. At the meantime videos consisting of most fundamental events during last time appeared:
And the honor and strength of police are shown here:
Photos of first injured people occured on 21.01.2014 as well as it is broadcasted that 300 people were wounded by police.
However, there are injured men among police.
In the meantime all outstanding newspapers casted public spotlight to the Ukrainian Riot:
One of opposition leaders Vitali Klitschko tried to stop clashes, but he was pour over with fire extinguisher foamy. This accident again proved fact that there is an unknown force ruling crowd.
20.01.2014 it has become clear that new round of revolution in Ukraine started and this video shows the situation on front as of 20 January.
The clashes were continued till 20.01.2014, so that all night warriors on the both sides were keen on escalation of conflict, the most interesting moments are photographed:
Berkut provokes people, what reply is expected by soldiers?
Demonstrants' reply came pat.
Primitive technological wonder is used as tank while attacking cordon of police.
Special Squad Soldiers called "Berkut" were attacked with Molotov cocktails as well as stones. In reply police used grenades and guns using rubber bullets. At least 4 men died as of today and one young fellow had his arm shot away. The most exteme scenes of violence you can watch below:
19.01.2014 people gathered near "Dynamo Kiev" stadium and attacked militia on purpose to break down cordon and infiltrate into governmental buildings.
The incentive for new wave of clashes in Ukraine fell on 16.01.2014 when the main legislative body in Ukraine - Verkhovna Rada accepted a diverse set of laws. In fact these laws are meant to impose some restrirestrictions on the freedom of actions of average man. Besides, laws make EuroMaydan impossible meeting according to legislation. Under these circumstances people decided to make effort in their struggle.
In particular, those questions are not in the spotlight of Ukrainian news, despite the necessity to examine them. Let's ask these quite simple questions and try to find out the answers. Whereupon the picture of state of affairs may be different.
At present EuroMaydan is exalting all world.
However, for a start let's revert to the time, when the political meeting named EuroMaydan didn't started.
Who is the most interested party in signing the European Union Association Agreement in Ukraine?
First of all such interested party consists of tycoons. Bacause of a diverse of reasons:
1) Above all it is a desire to legalize capital of doubtful provenance and avoid the peril of expropriation. Not from the side of:
- Ukrainian competitors, willing to take in hand the property due to changes in political conjuncture.
- More powerful Russian capitalists aimed at expansion and diversification of their business and sphere of impact.
- Radical political anti-tycoon forces that in case of rise to power will be aimed at nationalization.
2) This desire as well as is made up of intentions to pose oneself as Ukrainian élite and be introduced to West establishment, to secure deposits kept in West banks and be on the safe side, to take the legal control over the foreign property starting from houses and finishing business. For instance, Mezhyhirya, private residence of President of Ukraine is executed by companies registered in West countries.
3) Being introduced to the ruling global circles is the highest priority for Ukrainian tycoons pinning hopes on support on behalf of the most powerful and stable business élite in the world.
Besides, it is West business, that provides Ukrainian business with affordable credits and allows it to fulfill IPO on purpose to increase the capital of companies. As well as West markets face the demand for raw materials and metal, that is meet by Ukrainian titans of metal industry. Europe plants have in short supply cheap iron ore, scrap metal and goods of metal industry, which are imported from Ukraine.
After all, tycoons spend a lot of time at their houses and apartments in forein capitals and health resorts, where they are treated as desired guests. Children of tycoons study in West schools, their wives do shopping in Paris and London, and so on. They even are at law with each other in West courtes, just remind the Berezovsky and Abramovich trial. They are connected with West by a set of threads and Ukraine is the territory, where people deliver stellar returns to tycoons and take small pay packages for themselves.
In general, it is very typical picture for comprador business, aimed at foreign markets and capital, rather than at development and achieving of high-performance model of domestic economy. These standards are widely used in countries of Third World to which Ukraine is reffered as well.
Therefore, all Ukrainian economic and political ruling top despite intestine confrontations, is giving a shape to a focus on West. Association Agreement was underpinned both by President of Ukraine and opposition leaders. And they didn't declare their positions once upon a time. Ukrainian society has been agitated by politics for six last months at least. And remind that opposition and government initialed Association Agreement in Verkhovna Rada, the national legislative body, set a West path of development as foreground one.
We have just put emphasis on the role of tycoons' interests in movements carried out by Ukraine, but what about another citizens of Ukraine, who are on a low income and make both ends meet.
What consequenses will experience Ukrainian economy if Association Agreement is signed?
The economic field and outlooks of Association Agreement are not in the spotlight of Ukrainian news at all, mind you. No mere, media avoids economic questions, it keeps a lid on basic guideline of merger between countries with EU and Ukrainian economy. Finally, the economy of Ukraine will suffer from low competitiveness opportunities and burdens as corruption and growth of part of black economy. And the EU will find a new market for sale of products, for which the demand on European markets is sagging. Let's overview the implications that Ukrainian economy is to face according to Association Agreement:
1) The abatement in customs fees will decrease the incomes to budget from customs fees.
2) The free flow of cheap goods from Europen Union will finish off the products of Ukrainian business incapable of competing on prices. Having been overtaken Ukrainian business will close plants and as a result government will miss incomes from taxation and suffer from increase in unemployment expenditures. Millions of people will lose their jobs and receive severe blow on their lives. Besides, in accordance with Association Agreement Ukraine is to deal with its own economic obstacles, no one will hold a candle to Ukrainians.
3) The decrease in trade turnover between Ukraine and Russia is direct consequence that Ukraine should avoid with all its strength. It is clear that Russia will infringe the rights of Ukraine by imposing enormous tariffs as well as implementation of restrictions on Ukrainian goods. If Ukraine had signed Association Agreement it would be considered as country united by some engagements with European Union, thus, out of impact of Moscow. In turn Russia is able to restrict import on the lee of non-economic barriers. As a result Ukrainian export making approximately 30 percent of deliveries to Russia, will dramatically sag opening huge budget deficit hole.
And there are just main problems granted by Association Agreement, we have missed a set of requirements according to which Ukraine should change all infrastructure spended a lot of money on this reformation. National standards of Ukraine are to be replaced by European ones, from traffic lane markings to houses modifications. Undoubtedly, Ukrainian budget is unble to serve all these requirements and for another thing EU is not inclined to provide Ukraine with one more IMF credit.
So, we can see that economy of Ukraine needs piles of money to conform to European standards and conduct trade as an equal with foreign partners. The situation seems like everywhere Ukraine turns the economic problems requiring large expenditures and outlays occur.
Why Yanukovych has stopped the procedure of signature of Association Agreement?
When the ruling top was concerned about the lives of people and what they will face in future? President of Ukraine is not handling complex assignments of people of Ukraine. He forged into the lead, being supported by representatives of business and he has to provide support in turn. Due to reasons we have mentioned above. In favour of tycoons, in other words. But, on the other hand Yanukovych is eager to win elections of President in 2015. And it is clear that if now the Association Agreement is signed, in 2015 Ukraine will receive a set of economic problems and recession on a regular basis. and this will not no mere the failure of policy of this President, this will be his defeat, and we know how Ukrainian leaders treat defeated politics. The fate of Yulia Tymoshenko is unattractive for Yanukovych.
And how to win elections, when economy faces stagnation, full collapse of metal industry and unemployment growth. The answer is clear. On the other hand European Union can improve the situation, providing money to keep Ukrainian economy from reaching a downfall. But is not inclined to do this.
Why then Yanukovych started the process of eurointegration and free trade area agreement?
Obviously because he expected another results after the negotiations among European Union and Russia, rather than he got, after all. The willing of Russia to avoid Ukraine come under the influence of European Union was underestimated and the willing of European Union to intensify the process of eurointegration was overestimated.
Therefore, Yanukovych hasn't refused to deal with European Union and delay eurointegration on more late date. The best option for President is to sign an Agreement in 2015 and no mere in this year, but shortly before elections of President in order to avoid the negative economic implications scaring people away. What will be after the elections is out of concern of President.
And here the political meeting called EuroMaydan started. The first EuroMaydan began in november (before suppression of a demonstration 30.11.13) and the second has started in december (after the suppression).
What idea underpinned EuroMaydan in November?
The myth of sweet "eurolife", supposedly Ukraine will face after the signature of Agreement. The participants of EuroMaydan were unaware of facts or deliberately ignored them, such as the text of Agreement demolishing the myth of eurolife. And that in Agreement it is not mentioned about the possible entarance of Ukraine to European Union in near or distant future. And that similar Agreements were signed with such countries as Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Bolivia and Jordan. On the examples of that we can visually be convinced of fact that no prosperity or democracy were brought by the Association Agreement. And that no passport-free zone is not expected between EU and Ukraine. And we are not marking out the remendous negative consequences for Ukrainian economy mentioned above.
Despite the fact that during last year government has been puzzling its head over the tools persuading Ukrainians believe in euromyth, according to the latest sociological researches conducted by Kiev Onternational Institute of Sociology, 38 percent of Ukrainians want Ukraine to be admitted to the Customs Union, where Ukraine is welcomed and 37,8 percent prefer joining to European Union, where nobody waits for Ukraine. Of course, 38 percent are not the whole Ukraine and even not a majority. Thus, President is not inclined to carry out national public-opinion poll as to the geopolitics choice of Ukraine.
So that, after the refusal of Yanukuvych to sign Agreement, firsly, in the West regions people started an uprising on purpose to show the loyalty of people of Ukraine to European Union. Even in Kiev people supported this new movement weakly and without the troops landed from West Ukraine, the EuroMaydan would be mere miserable.
In last days before the Summit in Vilnius EuroMaydan began to peter out, taking preposterous forms such as EuroMarch of children in Lviv under the slogan "We want to Disneyland" and even its organizers began talking about the dissolution of EuroMaydan.
But then suppression of a demonstrations occured and all cardinally changed.
Why it was necessary to breaking up EuroMaydan, which has already petered out?
Suppression of november EuroMaydan under circumstances when it has almost gone out, has dramatically changed situation. After the breaking up, EuroMaydan was given a new boost. Thosands of people came out on the streets in protest of violence of government, but if there hadn't been not any suppression, people would not take to the streets.
The explanation of the night suppression of EuroMaydan can be given or by strangeness of that who gave this order or by assumption that breaking up was a part of chain aimed at raising the temperature and output of EuroMaydan to new level. The option with strangeness is hardly probable because the strangeness is very evident. The option with raising the temperature around EuroMaydan is of interest of men, who were keen on signing Agreement. That is European Union and oriented on West groups in Ukraine, starting from opposition and finishing financial moguls underpinning Yanukovych.
All media in Ukraine were casting a public spotlight on the breaking up of demonstration. And all media were posing it as act of evidental violence. And this subjective, not objective point of view on the events taken place at november 30th. If someone is iclined to reckon that such reaction of media is act of humanism, let's remind how Ukrainian capitalists earned thier money in early 1990s.
How many plants were demolished, competitors eliminated by non-market means, how many people lost jobs and another burdens that are humanists have on their conscience. And if these people are interested in eurointegration, can the interests of folk be accounted as well? It's clear tha not. And when mottos as "See how people live in Germany" and "Do you how about the amount of unemployment benefit in Sweden?" didn't work as efficient manipulation tools, organizers of EuroMaydan decided to apply to emotions of people. And the most powerful emotions occur at the sight of blood. Which was demonstrated to ecstatic society by hurt people coincidently appeared in 4 a.m. on the central square of Ukraine.
For what is struggling december EuroMaydan?
The majority of people require staying at the EuroMaydan are sincerely willing to fight corruption, unemployment and another social problems. They want changes for better in Ukraine. They call for retribution for those who handled breaking up EuroMaydan at 30.11.13. But what next? When this question is asked, the answer is given by opposition leaders, that is requirement to conduct new elections of President and enpower opposition. In other words situation is very similar to 2004, when so-called "Orange revolution" shaken up whole country. But did Ukraine become the seat of democracy and fighting corruption?
Yes, unfortunately it didn't. And what except next change of parties and leaders will receive Ukraine and majority of people standing at EuroMaydan at present? Nothing at all. Because authority as well as opposition don't wary in principle. Both have been changing each other in turn for last ten years. And the result of activity is the same for Ukrainians. Both are the part of one system aimed at meeting interests of tycoons, and they are not intended to change it, they are just eager to redirect the financial flows from one economica and political group to another. And both are keen on eurointegration of themselves and integration of folk as euro service staff.
What to do?
People of Ukraine should make every effort in order avoid being used by tucoons neither oppositional nor empowered ones. For us, as external observers, it is required not to listen to any media representing interests of different groups. Try to analyze all information independently and without emotions. Do not consume prepred assessments of events and try to answer qustions "Who will gain from this and why has it happened?".
And let's hope that anyway and sooner or later people of Ukraine will understand that somebody is trying to use them one more time in posing enormous challenge to country and achieving private goals.
The power of informational influence was promoted by Ray Bradbury in his novel Fahrenheit 451, were all society was unaware of real state of affairs and lived in play-world.
Do you have other ideas about revolution in Ukraine? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.